Box Office Predictions/Results Thread

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http://www.washingtonpost.com/busine...m_business_pop

NEW YORK — On Oscar weekend, the real-life action stars of “Act of Valor” bested Hollywood’s pretend heroes.

The Relativity Media action flick, starring real, active-duty U.S. Navy SEALs, topped the weekend box office, earning $24.7 million according to studio estimates Sunday. That was a strong opening for a unique film made in collaboration with the Navy, which sought to demonstrate the skill and bravery of the SEALs without Hollywood imitation.

“How often can you repeat the same heroes that are big stars pretending to be heroes?” said Kyle Davies, president of worldwide distribution for Relativity. “I think moviegoers are ready for a new, fresh experience.”

“Act of Valor” led another strong weekend at the box office, as it was up 24.4 percent over the corresponding weekend last year. Attendance this year is up 20.4 percent, a surge that hasn’t been driven by Academy Awards contenders but by new films in a traditionally tepid movie-going season.

“The newcomers this year have just been igniting the box office,” said Paul Dergarabedian, box office analyst for Hollywood.com. “It’s a very competitive marketplace for both the Oscar contenders and the newcomers.”

Lionsgate’s “Tyler Perry’s Good Deeds,” a more dramatic offering for the consistently popular Perry, opened with a healthy $16 million. Its audience was resoundingly female (76 percent) and may have been slightly diminished by the appeal of Denzel Washington in the thriller “Safe House.” That earned $11.4 million, bringing its cumulative total to $98.1 million.

The weekend’s other new releases — the thriller “Gone” and the comedy “Wanderlust” — had weaker debuts. The latter, a comedy with Paul Rudd and Jennifer Aniston, earned $6.6 million. “Gone,” starring Amanda Seyfried, took in $5 million.

In their third week of release, Sony’s romantic drama “The Vow” and Warner Bros.’ family film “Journey 2: The Mysterious Island” padded their totals. “Journey” added $13.5 million for a total of $76.7 million, while” The Vow” added $10 million more for a cumulative $103 million.

The success of “Act of Valor” validated an unusual strategy for Relativity, a production company that began distributing movies in 2010.

Relativity purchased the film, independently produced by the Bandito Brothers, for $13 million. It stoked interest through more than 400 advance screenings and a robust TV ad campaign that included Super Bowl commercials. Its marketing budget was reportedly approximately $30 million.

Though the film garnered poor reviews, audiences gave it an “A,” according to CinemaScore. It has resonated with males, who made up 71 percent of the audience.

Internationally, the film, which plays much as patriotic propaganda, may face a stiffer challenge. It will open in foreign markets in future weeks, distributed by Film Nation.

Davies said the film was a “question mark” going into the weekend because of a lack of comparative films, but added that he’s “optimistic” about its global prospects.

“In the same way we just didn’t know what was going to happen domestically, it’s still a bit of a mystery,” said Davies. “You would think because it’s very much an American story, there won’t be the same level of interest. But I think at the end of the day, if a movie delivers on an entertainment quotient, then that’s the most important factor.”

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I've decided to start adding international box office.

http://boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=3381&p=.htm

It may never have ranked higher than third place domestically, but Ghost Rider: Spirit of Vengeance found its way in to first place at the overseas box office this weekend with close to $22 million. It opened on top in Russia with a massive $8.2 million, and had a quieter $2.2 million start in Germany. It also retained first place in Brazil with a strong $2.7 million. The comic book sequel has now made around $44 million overseas.

After holding the top spot for consecutive weekends, international hit Journey 2: The Mysterious Island had to settle for second with $21.1 million. Its top territory was once again China, where it added $5.8 million for a total of $48 million. It now ranks third all-time there among Warner Bros. releases. The movie's only major opening this weekend came in Italy ($2.3 million), and it's slated to expand in to Germany on Thursday. The movie has already grossed $161.8 million on the foreign circuit, which tops the first Journey's $140.3 million final tally.

Safe House continued to do solid business overseas by adding $13 million in 45 markets this weekend. It had solid debuts in the United Kingdom ($3.4 million), France ($2.2 million) and Germany ($1.6 million). Through three weekends in theaters, the Denzel Washington-Ryan Reynolds thriller has earned $35.5 million.

This Means War grossed $11.1 million in its second weekend for a total of $24.98 million. Its biggest earners were holdover markets Russia ($3.1 million) and Australia ($1.46 million).

Hugo had its best weekend yet, grossing $8.6 million for a total of $67.6 million. It's only major opening was in Spain, where it claimed first place with $2.3 million.

International sensation The Intouchables added $8.4 million this weekend for an incredible total of $247.8 million. It debuted in second place in Italy with just under $2 million, and held first place in Germany for the seventh-straight weekend with $4.55 million. With a $51.83 million total, it's now the highest-grossing non-sequel in Germany since Avatar. The comedy/drama is slated for a limited opening in the U.S. on the last weekend of May.

The Woman in Black grossed at least $7.4 million this weekend for a total of $37.1 million. Much of that came in the U.K., where it held in first place with $3.9 million.

Fox International Productions released August 8th in Russia this weekend and earned $5.85 million. Fox also scored with The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel, which debuted to $3.5 million in the U.K. (and is scheduled for limited release in the U.S. on May 4).

This idiot on IMDB (who's just a troll) believed that GRSOV wasn't going to do well oversees, and I said he was wrong. Ha!

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Anywho this weekend box office. The lorax will no doubt take the top spot.

1. The Lorax 36-40 million
2. Act of Valor 15-17 million
3. Project x 11-12 million
4. Good Deeds 7-8 million

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http://www.thewrap.com/movies/articl...35884?page=0,1

"The Lorax," with its green message, is turning into box office gold for Universal. The studio's Dr. Seuss tale took $17.4 million on Friday and is looking at a $60.4 million weekend domestically.

That is far beyond the studio's pre-release estimates of around $40 million -- and well more than the $44-to-$50 million estimates of less conservative box-office watchers outside the studio.

The other new movie of the weekend, the Warner Bros. comedy "Project X," took an estimated $8.2 million on Friday, putting it on track for a solid $19.8 million weekend.

If the $60 million estimate on the 3D "The Lorax" proves correct, the PG-rated film will have the biggest weekend opening since "The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn -- Part 1" opened to $138 million last November.

And it will be the first animated film since "Cars 2" was released on June 24, 2011, to open to more than $60 million. That movie debuted to $66.1 million.

Audiences are clearly enjoying "The Lorax," which received an "A" score from the audience survey firm Cinemascore. "Project X" earned a "B" score.

Earlier:
"Dr. Seuss' The Lorax" is poised to open bigger than any other movie so far this year -- easily taking $44 million, and perhaps as much as $50 million, at the weekend box office.

Universal's animated 3D film based on the beloved Dr. Seuss book is on track to more than double the take of this weekend's other new movie, the Warner Bros. comedy "Project X," which is looking at a $20 million opening.

Meanwhile, "The Artist," which won five Oscars, including best picture, last Sunday, is expanding from 966 locations to 1,756.

And "Journey 2: The Mysterious Island," which on Wednesday surpassed the $244.9 million that the original "Journey to the Center of the Earth" took worldwide in 2008, is all but certain to cross the quarter-billion dollar mark worldwide this weekend.

The PG-rated "The Lorax" is likely to do some pretty heavy damage to "Journey 2's" box office this weekend, as both movies are family films.

"The Lorax" will mark Universal's second $40 million-plus opening of the year. "Safe House" opened to $40.2 million on Feb. 10. That same weekend, Sony's Screen Gems opened "The Vow" to $41.2 million, which is the year's biggest opener so far.

"Lorax" is ending that -- and is likely to keep the record until March 23, when Lionsgate opens "The Hunger Games." That movie is tracking powerfully and could take $100 million.

For now, though, "The Lorax" is the great orange hope.

Tracking from the audience research firm NRG is through the roof: 90 percent of moviegoers reported awareness of the movie, and 93 percent of women 25 and older said they were familiar with it.

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http://www.thewrap.com/movies/articl...-opening-35938

"The Lorax" surpassed all box-office expectations in its opening weekend, taking $70.7 million -- the biggest opening of 2012 so far and the most ever for a Universal animated film.

Universal's pre-release expectations for the 3D movie were around $40 million.

Warner Bros. had a strong opening weekend, as well. Its R-rated found footage comedy "Project X" debuted to $20.8 million.

And The Weinstein Company saw that Oscar bump it had been waiting for. "The Artist," which won five Academy Awards last Sunday, returned to the top 10 at the box office, taking $3.9 million. The silent, black and white movie, now in its 15th week of release, has grossed $37.1 million domestically.

Overall, the box office was up about 24 percent compared to the same weekend in 2011. This marks the ninth consecutive week that the box office has beaten last year's.

"To have nine weeks in a row up year-over-year just speaks to the quality of the films in the marketplace," Jeff Goldstein, the Warner Bros. executive VP of distribution, told TheWrap Sunday morning. "The audience will come out if you have a movie they want to see."

This weekend, the audience wanted to see "The Lorax."

Universal and Illumination Entertainment's PG-rated adaptation of the Dr. Suess book is now the biggest-opening animated family film that is not a sequel. It is Universal's fourth-biggest opening of all time. And it is the biggest opening weekend for a movie based on a Dr. Suess book.

Until "The Lorax," Screen Gems' "The Vow" had the biggest opening weekend of 2012. That movie debuted to $41.2 million.

And in all of 2011, only a half-dozen movies -- "Fast Five," "Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides," " The Hangover: Part II," "Transformers: Dark of the Moon," "Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2" and "The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn -- Part 1" -- opened to more than $70 million.

The huge numbers for "The Lorax" are especially encouraging for Universal because family movies tend to have larger multiples than other types of films.

Nikki Rocco, Universal's head of distribution, attributed the film's remarkable box-office success to the movie itself -- the audience survey company Cinemascore gave it an "A" -- but also to its marketing campaign, which began early, and to its release date.

"Some people said to me, 'Why not open it in the summer?'" Rocco told TheWrap Sunday morning. "Why not now, when there's a lack of family films? 'Journey 2' is the last one, and it is in its fourth week."

She also noted that Universal partnered with more than 70 other companies and organizations, including Mazda, The Nature Conservancy, IHOP, Pottery Barn, HP and Whole Foods, to promote the film.

As expected, "The Lorax" played to families: 68 percent of the audience was children 12 and younger and their parents.

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This weekend is Disney's Gamble John Carter (A movie I want desperately to succeed but I don't see it happening). Reviews have been very mixed, but from what I've heard from the audience (and website's I care about) it's great.

1. The Lorax 40-45
2. John Carter 25-30 (Hope I'm majorly wrong)
3. Silent House 15-20 million
4. Project X 10-12 million
5. Act of valor 8-10 million

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http://boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=3388&p=.htm

Journey 2: The Mysterious Island was back in first place at the overseas box office this weekend, though with a fairly low tally.

The adventure sequel grossed $15.7 million from 52 territories for a foreign total of $185.6 million. Add in the domestic gross, and the movie has made over $270 million worldwide (compared to the first Journey's $242 million). Its only noteworthy opening was a decent $1.7 million in Germany, and its only major remaining debut comes in Japan at the end of the month.

With all this money coming in, it's unlikely this is the last Journey movie—in fact, it has been widely reported today that a third Journey movie is being put in to pre-production at Warner Bros.

This Means War placed second with $14.4 million, which is its best weekend yet. It had a strong $2.3 million debut in South Korea and a respectable $2 million start in Germany. So far, the movie has earned $43 million overseas.

Hugo also had its strongest frame so far with $11.4 million from 36 markets for a foreign total of $83 million. It was propelled by an impressive $3.45 million third place start in Japan, though it opened much weaker in South Korea ($408,000). Safe House wasn't far behind with $11 million, which brought its total to $51.9 million, while War Horse added $10.6 million for a total of $79.1 million.

Ghost Rider: Spirit of Vengeance earned at least $9.7 million this weekend, though data remains somewhat incomplete at this moment. Based on the information that is available, the movie has earned a total of $58 million overseas so far.

It was a big weekend for Best Actor Oscar winner Jean Dujardin. His latest movie Les Infideles, which is a series of short films about infidelity, opened in first place in France with $7.8 million. Across its three markets, the movie grossed $8.5 million this weekend. The Artist also performed well with $7.7 million for a total of $65.3 million. It got a boost from France, where it expanded to 580 screens in its 21st weekend and took second place with $2.4 million. On Sunday, The Artist passed $100 million worldwide.


Other Notables - Weekend Gross - Gross-to-Date

The Devil Inside - $6.9 - $24.3
The Intouchables - $6.9 - $260.5
Chronicle - $6.2 - $44
Underworld 4 - $5.1 - $90.2
The Vow - $4.3 - $39.6
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel - $3.7 - $11
Extremely Loud - $3.3 - $14.4
The Descendants - $3.2 - $83.5
The Muppets - $3 - $69.8
Phantom Menace 3D - $2.5 - $50.3
In Time - $2.4 - $129
Mission: Impossible 4 - $2.2 - $478
Jack and Jill - $2 - $71.6
August 8th - $1.9 - $8.6
Contraband - $1.6 - $14.5
Puss in Boots - $1.5 - $386.4
Dragon Tattoo - $1.2 - $127.1

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http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/new...-office-298284

Despite receiving a B+ CinemaScore, Disney's tentpole John Carter is faltering out of the gate at the domestic box office, where it's now anticipating a tepid $27 million debut after grossing $9.8 million on Friday.

The movie--which needed younger and older fanboys alike--is skewing notably older, with nearly 70 percent of the audience over the age of 25 and 30 percent over the age of 50, according to CinemaScore exit data. Males made up 65 percent of those buying tickets.

According to both Disney and Universal estimates, John Carter narrowly won the Friday box office, but by Saturday, it will be overtaken by holdover Dr. Seuss' The Lorax, which is anticipating a $40 million weekend. Universal and Illumination Entertainment's Lorax, which grossed $9.6 million on Friday, will finish Sunday with a domestic gross north of $122 million (several rival studios actually had Lorax beating John Carter on Friday).

Marking the first 3D tentpole of 2012, John Carer cost $250 million to produce, plus a major marketing spend. The movie is likely to be a huge write-down for Disney unless the film overperforms internationally, where early results are mixed.

Pixar's Andrew Stanton-directed John Carter, which marks his live-action debut after turning out blockbusters Finding Nemo and WALL-E.

Friday also brought bad news for the weekend's two other new offerings, Eddie Murphy comedy A Thousand Words and horror pic Silent House, starring Elizabeth Olson.

Silent House, distributed by Open Road Films, grossed $2.6 million on Friday for a projected $6 million weekend. The horror pic received a F CinemaScore.

Thousand Words, from Paramount, has been sitting on the shelf for four years. The comedy grossed roughly $1.9 million on Friday and is looking at a $5 million to $5.5 million weekend, in line with pre-release expectations.

That cinemascore comment is idiotic. Cinemascore's don't usually come out until after the first day.

Actually oversees performance is very high.

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http://boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=3391&p=.htm

After months upon months of box office speculation, John Carter finally opened and as expected was a huge disappointment. The mega-budget sci-fi epic wasn't even able to unseat The Lorax, which held first place for the second-straight weekend. The other openers, Silent House and A Thousand Words, also performed poorly on a weekend where the Top 12 earned an estimated $123.35 million (up just five percent from last year).

The Lorax fell 44 percent to an estimated $39.1 million. The movie held about as well as Horton Hears a Who! (45 percent), and a bit worse than Despicable Me (42 percent). On Sunday, The Lorax is expected to pass The Vow to become 2012's highest-grossing movie at $122 million.

John Carter opened to an estimated $30.6 million from 3,749 locations. That's lower than practically any similar movie, beginning with those that came out around the same time of year. It was obviously way off from 300 ($70.9 million) and Watchmen ($55.2 million)—what's more concerning, though, is that it was even a tad below 10,000 B.C. ($35.9 million) and Battle: Los Angeles ($35.6 million), both of which were modest movies in comparison.

Among past Mouse House franchise attempts, John Carter isn't looking so good either. Back in 2003, Disney's Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl debuted to $46.6 million, or the equivalent of over $60 million. Tron Legacy opened to $44 million in December, which is a month with notoriously low openings (the movie ultimately closed with four times as much, a fate that's unlikely for John Carter). One very minor bright spot is that the opening was slightly above that of Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time ($30.1 million), but with 3D and IMAX surcharges John Carter even lagged behind that dud in initial attendance.

Disney's marketing department has been beat up on pretty good for the lackluster John Carter campaign, and to their credit the movie doesn't really lend itself to an easy sell. Still, making the movie is the responsibility of production, and selling the movie is the responsibility of marketing, and in that regard they clearly failed.

The movie is called John Carter, but aside from the fact that he can jump far and looks good without a shirt on, what else did commercials really convey about the title character? Also, what was John Carter doing in this desert landscape occupied by tall green men, aside from fighting giant furry white creatures? If the characters don't seem interesting, and the stakes are low (or poorly explained), it doesn't really matter how much money the movie cost or how many advertisements are run—audiences are just not going to show up.

For whatever reason, the marketing mainly ignored the movie's central romance, and as a result it paid dearly with women, who represented just 37 percent of the opening weekend audience. Crowds also skewed slightly older (59 percent over the age of 25), and they awarded the movie a solid "B+" CinemaScore. 3D presentations accounted for 64 percent of the gross, and included within that figure was a very high 16 percent from IMAX 3D showings.

Project X added an estimated $11.55 million for a 10-day total of $40.1 million. Its 45 percent decline is actually quite good considering it was billed as an "event" movie on its opening weekend, and the found footage comedy could wind up as high as $60 million before the end of its run.

Silent House opened in fourth place with an estimated $7 million from 2,124 theaters. That's half the opening of The Last House on the Left ($14.1 million), and also notably off from the co-director's Open Water ($11.4 million). Exit polls indicated that 80 percent of the audience was under 35, and there is not currently a CinemaScore available from Open Road (though it's been widely reported that it received the dreaded "F" score).

Sometimes it seems like all horror movies are instant hits, but a disappointment like Silent House reinforces the fact that the genre isn't an automatic slam dunk. Supernatural thrillers have a clear antagonist, and it's tough to come up with a more menacing baddie than the devil himself (which is the case in most possession movies, of course). Silent House, on the other hand, had a faceless, undefined threat, and the single-shot gimmick can only do so much to make up for that deficiency.

Act of Valor was only $10,000 behind Silent House and could easily swap positions when actuals are reported on Monday afternoon. The movie fell 48 percent to an estimated $7 million, and has so far earned a very respectable $56.1 million.

The long-delayed Eddie Murphy comedy A Thousand Words finally landed in theaters this weekend. Unfortunately for Murphy, it's $6.35 million debut puts it firmly in his growing flop category along with Meet Dave ($5.25 million) and Imagine That ($5.5 million). In all fairness, A Thousand Words did outperform those movies despite being in over 1,000 fewer locations, but it's still a terrible opening for a former comedy superstar (when is he going to realize people would like to occasionally get some Raw Eddie Murphy mixed in with their Doctor Dolittle Eddie Murphy?). The audience skewed older (61 percent were 25 years and up) and female (55 percent), and they awarded the movie a "B-" Cinemascore.

Safe House eased 32 percent to an estimated $5 million. On Sunday, the movie is expected to reach $115.8 million total, which ranks second all-time among Denzel Washington movies ahead of Remember the Titans ($115.7 million) but behind American Gangster ($130.2 million).

In limited release, Friends with Kids opened in 13th place with $2.2 million from 374 locations. The Bridesmaids cast reunion (Kristen Wiig, Jon Hamm, Maya Rudolph and Chris O'Dowd all co-starred) delivered Roadside Attractions second-highest opening ever behind last year's The Conspirator, which earned $3.51 million from twice as many venues.

The weekend's other major limited release was Salmon Fishing in the Yemen, which netted a decent $240,000 from 18 locations for a per-theater average of $13,333. Obviously, CBS Films is planning to expand the Ewan McGregor-Emily Blunt romance over the next few weeks, though it's unclear right now if it will receive a nationwide release.

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http://boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=3393&p=s.htm

Coinciding with its disappointing domestic debut, John Carter performed a bit better in its overseas opening this weekend. The movie grossed an estimated $70.6 million from 51 territories, which included all major markets aside from China and Japan.

At $17.5 million, John Carter scored the fourth-highest debut in Russian box office history. It did do solid business throughout the Asian Pacific marketplace as well—its biggest openings there were in South Korea ($3.9 million) and Australia ($3.4 million).

Otherwise, though, the numbers were fairly unremarkable. In Europe, the movie saw middling results in France ($3.8 million), the U.K. ($3.3 million), Germany ($3 million), Spain ($2.8 million) and Italy ($1.6 million). It was slightly better in Latin America ($2.9 million in Mexico and $2.4 million in Brazil, for example), but none of these figures suggest the movie is in for blockbuster runs.

Considering China and Japan are the largest markets in the Asian Pacific region and have yet to open, John Carter could ultimately be in for a respectable final tally. Still, historical comparisons seem to suggest that the best case scenario is around $300 million overseas, which combined with its middling domestic performance isn't going to be nearly enough to put this one in the black.

Aside from John Carter, the foreign box office was pretty quiet this weekend. This Means War added $9.4 million for a foreign total of $57 million. That brings the movie's worldwide (domestic plus foreign) figure to just over $100 million, and it still has Brazil, Mexico, France, Italy and Japan on the horizon.

Journey 2 grossed an estimated $9.2 million for an overseas total just over $200 million. The movie's top territory so far is China, where it's amassed an impressive $57.4 million.

After fading from the charts for a few weeks, Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows reappeared thanks to a $3.7 million debut in Japan. That's nearly double the opening of the first Sherlock movie, and brings the sequel's foreign total to $335.6 million. At $522 million worldwide, Sherlock 2 is only a few days away from passing the original Sherlock's $524 million total.

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This week 21 Jump Street get released and I'm wouldn't be surprised if that tops the box office. I hope JC can substain itself.

1. 21 Jump Street 30-35 million
2. The Lorax 23-25 million
3. John Carter 20-22 million (hoping for a really good surprise)
4. Project X 8-10 million
5. Act of valor 7-8 million

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http://insidemovies.ew.com/2012/03/1...street-friday/

Box office update: '21 Jump Street' shoots up $13.1 million on Friday

R-rated comedy 21 Jump Street (starring Channing Tatum and Jonah Hill) topped the box office on Friday with a tremendous $13.1 million in its first 24 hours. The well-reviewed television adaptation–it earned a “B” CinemaScore grade–may pull in about $35 million over the Friday to Sunday period, which is a gross typically reserved for comedic summer tentpoles — not any old springtime release. I’d guess that 21 Jump Street‘s terrific start will trigger a sequel announcement within a week. Sony could have a new smash franchise on their hands.

The rest of the box office wasn’t nearly as exciting. The Lorax churned up another $6.7 million in second place, and it seems headed for $27 million over three days. In third, John Carter dropped a troubling 59 percent from last Friday for only $4 million. Looks like those hoping for a sudden uptick for the $250 million bomb can stop holding their breath. It will only find about $13 million this weekend.

Rounding out the Top 5 were Project X and A Thousand Words with respective Friday grosses of $1.5 million and $1.2 million. They each may pull in about $4 million over the full frame.

1. 21 Jump Street – $13.1 million
2. The Lorax – $6.7 mil
3. John Carter – $4.0 mil
4. Project X – $1.5 mil
5. A Thousand Words – $1.1 mil

I'm really sad JC failed in the U.S. box office (I mean it got a B-t cinemascore for god sakes). Besides didn't GL get a B cinemascore, I guess that means 21 Jump Street is being mixed-ly received

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http://boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=3396&p=.htm

With its broadly-appealing premise, popular lead actors and well-executed marketing campaign, 21 Jump Street cruised in to first place at the box office this weekend ahead of two-time winner The Lorax. Meanwhile, John Carter crashed in its second outing, and Casa De Mi Padre cracked the Top 10 despite opening in less than 400 locations. With only one major new release, though, this appears to be the first weekend of 2012 that will see a year-over-year decline.

21 Jump Street opened to an estimated $35 million from 3,121 locations. That tops Jonah Hill's Superbad ($33.05 million) for highest opening ever for a comedy set in high school. Also, with the exception of Jackass 3-D, 21 Jump Street had the top opening for an R-rated comedy outside of the Summer (May-August).

The action comedy also compares well against other TV adaptations from the past decade. It wound up slightly below Get Smart ($38.7 million) and S.W.A.T. ($37.1 million), but it was higher than The Dukes of Hazzard ($30.7 million), Starsky and Hutch ($28.1 million), Miami Vice ($25.7 million) and The A-Team ($25.7 million).

The marketing for 21 Jump Street was a textbook example of how to sell a movie properly. Early and often, the trailers and commercials clearly laid out the premise, defined the main characters and unleashed a solid number of jokes. It didn't hurt that the movie starred likeable actors Jonah Hill and Channing Tatum, and that it was actually pretty good—it generated lots of buzz from word-of-mouth screenings held around the country over the past few months, and it was also well-received by critics (87 percent fresh on Rotten Tomatoes).

The audience was 53 percent male, which is a fairly low number for an action comedy and suggests that Channing Tatum probably helped draw more women to the theater than would otherwise have attended. Half of the audience was under 25 years of age, and that group awarded the movie an "A" CinemaScore (though across all audience members the movie received a more lukewarm "B" score).

Dr. Seuss' The Lorax fell 41 percent to an estimated $22.8 million in its third weekend. So far, the animated hit has earned $158.4 million, which is more than the final tally of Horton Hears a Who! ($154.5 million). Through 17 days, the movie is only trailing Despicable Me by around $3 million, and it looks like a foregone conclusion that The Lorax will wind up finishing with over $200 million.

Coming off its disappointing $30.2 million opening last weekend, there was still a chance that John Carter would hold up in the long-run and close above $100 million. That hope was all-but-extinguished this weekend, as the movie plummeted 55 percent to an estimated $13.5 million. It has now earned $53.2 million, which trails nearly all comparable titles including Prince of Persia and 10,000 B.C..

Project X succumbed to direct competition from 21 Jump Street this weekend—the found footage party comedy fell 64 percent to just over $4 million. Through 10 days, the movie has made $48.1 million.

A Thousand Words eased 39 percent to an estimated $3.75 million. That's a much better drop than Silent House, which was off 69 percent to $2.1 million. The two movies have now made a paltry $12.1 million and $10.6 million, respectively.

Will Ferrell's Spanish-language action comedy Casa De Mi Padre debuted in ninth place with an estimated $2.2 million despite only playing at 382 locations. That's not a great start, but it's also a lot better than it could have been given the language barrier and the mild marketing push from Lionsgate/Pantelion. The audience was 51 percent male and 68 percent Hispanic, and Lionsgate is planning to add 25 to 30 new markets (50 or so theaters) in the coming weeks.

Friends with Kids expanded to 640 theaters but fell 26 percent to an estimated $1.5 million. The romantic comedy has made $4.23 million through 10 days.

With an estimated $840,000 from 254 locations, Jeff, Who Lives at Home fell pretty firmly in to the underachiever category in its opening. For a solid comparison, the Duplass Brothers' last movie Cyrus earned $1.28 million from only 200 locations in its fourth weekend in theaters.

Nicolas Cage continued to drift further toward irrelevance this weekend. His latest action thriller, Seeking Justice, opened to just $260,000 from 231 locations for a terrible per-theater average of $1,126.

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http://boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=3397&p=.htm

John Carter led the overseas box office for the second weekend in a row, but the mega-budget sci-fi epic appears to be fading fast. It added an estimated $40.7 million from 54 markets for a total of $126.1 million. That inclues an estimated $10.4 million debut in China, which is Disney's second-highest opening ever there behind Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides.

When removing China from the weekend tally, though, John Carter fell a rough 57 percent in holdover markets. It continued to play well in Russia, where it held first place with $6.6 million, and it declined a light 19 percent to $2.8 million in Mexico. Adding in its domestic gross, John Carter has now made just over $180 million. That's not nearly enough to cover its outrageous expense, though—on Monday, Disney issued a brief press release indicating that John Carter's poor performance would generate a $200 million operating loss in the second quarter of 2012.

Dr. Seuss' The Lorax expanded to a total of 16 markets and earned $12.1 million this weekend. That figure is a bit skewered, though, as it includes at least $6 million in early previews in Russia. Overall, the animated flick has made nearly $9.7 million there, which is its only major territory so far.

This Means War continued to do solid business overseas. The romantic action comedy added $9.2 million for a total of $68.9 million, and was aided by second place debuts in Brazil ($1.6 million) and Mexico ($1.4 million).

Coinciding with its strong domestic opening, 21 Jump Street scored $7.2 million from 11 overseas markets. Most of that came from the two other major English language territories—it opened to an excellent $4.3 million in Australia, and took second place in the United Kingdom with $2.5 million.

The Devil Inside had its best weekend yet with $7.2 million in 44 markets. It claimed first place in the U.K. with $3.2 million, and has now made just under $38 million overseas.

Foreign sensation The Intouchables earned $7.1 million this weekend for an incredible total of $281 million. In the latest sign of its universal appeal, it improved 15 percent to $2.1 million in its second weekend in Spain. The Weinstein Company is releasing the French comedy/drama in New York and Los Angeles over Memorial Day Weekend.

I really wish Disney wouldn't be so idiotic and come out and make up a claim. They didn't do that when Mars Needs Moms tanked.

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The Hunger Games will no doubt be a winner (a big winner that is). No doubt it'll take 100 million or more. As for the rest I have no idea (no other wide releases this week).

1. Hunger Games 100-110 million

2. 21 Jump Street 15-20 million

3. Lorax 10-15 million

Have no idea. JC will no doubt slip ever further (grumbles).